Sorry, AI Still Can’t Predict a Market Crash
Sorry, AI Still Can’t Predict a Market Crash
Blog Article
Finance innovator Joseph Plazo just reminded a room full of elite students something Wall Street won’t admit: AI may be efficient, but it lacks wisdom.
MANILA — Plazo didn’t come to praise AI. He came to shake people up.
On a sunlit Thursday morning at the prestigious AIM campus in Manila, Plazo stood before a sea of students from top Asian universities—HKUST—ready for a sermon on AI’s glory in finance.
What they got instead? A splash of cold market reality.
“AI is like your smartest intern,” Plazo noted, “But you still don’t give the intern the keys to your vault.”
The room chuckled. Then they grew quiet. Because he meant every word.
### The Hard Truth: AI Is Smart—But Not Human
Let’s be clear—Plazo isn’t some technophobe clinging to the past. He builds trading AIs. His firm, Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital, creates some of the most accurate systems on global markets. He understands machine learning like few do.
But that’s exactly why his warning landed like a punch.
“The problem isn’t AI,” he told the room. “It’s our wishful thinking. We keep hoping it’ll save us from making hard decisions. That’s a fantasy.”
Plazo detailed real-world case studies—moments when AI signaled winning trades… right before a central bank pivot or an unexpected war. Noise that shattered the signal.
### Asia’s Best Challenged Him—and Learned Something
A student from Kyoto asked if LLMs might someday gauge global sentiment.
Plazo grinned.
“AI can spot a tweetstorm. But it won’t sense dread in a press conference. It misses regret in a central banker’s sigh.”
The room oohed. That one stuck.
Another asked, “Can AI ever understand conviction?”
Plazo raised an eyebrow.
“Conviction isn’t math. It’s gut. It’s shaped by failure and memory. You don’t download that.”
### A Wake-Up Call for Tomorrow’s Titans
This wasn’t about flash trading or chatbots. It was about principle.
Students admitted they saw AI as click here a cheat code—an escape hatch from risk, from thinking too hard. Plazo tore that idea down.
“You can automate your trades. You can’t automate your values.”
That line slapped. Because everyone in that room—from the copyright cowboys to the quant whizzes—wanted alpha. But not at the cost of their soul.
### AI’s Real Role? Powerful—But Limited.
Plazo didn’t trash AI. He credited its strengths:
- It filters noise.
- It backtests at scale.
- It tracks technical setups better than any human.
But it can’t read sarcasm. It won’t grasp when a politician is bluffing. And it doesn’t care if your retirement burns.
“If your AI bot makes a bad call,” Plazo asked, “do you still take the loss? Or do you hide behind the code?”
That was the mic drop.
### This Isn’t About AI—It’s About You
Plazo wasn’t preaching finance. He was preaching accountability. Use AI—but don’t worship it. Let it assist—not decide.
And yes—he still believes in the machines. He’s building tools that track geopolitics, misinformation, even psychological nuance.
But he left no doubt:
“No machine can tell you when *not* to act. That’s your job.”
### Final Thought: Maybe the Future Needs Less Code—And More Courage
As the crowd filed out—buzzing, challenged, changed—one phrase echoed down the halls:
“AI doesn’t know your values. So don’t let it make your decisions.”
In a world chasing speed, Plazo offered something rarer:
A mirror.
Because investing isn’t just about *winning*. It’s about knowing **why** you played.